Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies (GSICS), Kobe University
The Journal of Globalization and Development recently published a paper authored by Jude (Linghui Zhu), currently a doctoral student, and his colleagues at the World Bank titled “Does Premature Deindustrialization Matter? The Role of Manufacturing versus Services in Development”. The paper is available on the journal’s website in this link.
This paper is motivated to investigate the developmental phenomenon of “premature deindustrialization” emerged in recent growth trajectory, that the services sector has grown faster than manufacturing at lower levels of per capita income compared to the past. Based on multiple cross-country panel data, this study carried out decomposition analyses and addresses three main concerns that many have: (a) the rising share of services is confirmed to be real but not driven by a statistical artifact; (b) yet this matters less for development opportunities because some services sectors also share many “special” features of manufacturing; and (c) service-led development in developing countries, however, could not provide productivity and job creation simultaneously as what manufacturing did.
Linghui Zhu is with his doctoral studies at Kobe University under the supervision of Professor Ogawa and meantime works as a Social Protection Specialist at the World Bank China Country Office. He has authored several policy papers and a book The State of Social Safety Nets (2018) for the World Bank, and contributed to publications including China Economic Updates (2021 and 2020), Europe 4.0: Addressing the digital dilemma (2020), Trouble in The Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (2018), and others.
Authored by Danilo Dalmon (Research Student)
